TL;DR: Our report details the first-ever design and testing of a scenario-based training program for the complex cognitive skill of "thinking in time." The program was highly rated by U.S. Army officers and revealed a key insight: it significantly boosted junior officer confidence while simultaneously "humbling" senior leaders by revealing the skill's true complexity.

The Strategic Gap: Knowing vs. Teaching

Effective leadership is inseparable from time. Leaders must connect the past, present, and future to make sound decisions, a skill famously dubbed "Thinking in Time" by historians Richard Neustadt and Ernest May. This cognitive ability is a cornerstone of strategic thinking, helping leaders anticipate second-order effects, recognize patterns, and avoid repeating historical mistakes.

Despite its importance, this skill is almost never formally taught. The U.S. Army, an organization that runs on strategic planning, had no "deliberate and scalable development program" to cultivate it. Leaders were expected to just acquire this skill through experience.

This research confronts that gap directly. The goal was to move "thinking in time" from an abstract ideal to a concrete, trainable complex cognitive skill.

Building the Framework from Scratch

Before building a training program, we had to define what "thinking in time" actually is. The project began with an extensive analysis phase, including:

1. A comprehensive literature review on strategic thinking, applied history, and cognitive biases.
2. In-depth interviews with 25 Subject Matter Experts (SMEs), including Army senior leaders, historians, strategists, and futurists.

This research resulted in a clear, consensus definition:

Thinking in Time: A cognitive reasoning skill by which the dimension of time (past, present, and future) is used to support the decision-making process.

We broke this abstract skill down into seven concrete, trainable facets:

• Historical Perspective-Taking: Understanding past actions from the perspective of those who lived them.
• Experiential Reflection: Using your own relevant personal experiences to fill information gaps.
• Historical Reasoning: Comparing current problems to past analogies to find similarities and differences.
• Framing Causal Chains: Hypothesizing the sequences of actions and reactions that led to the present.
• Trend Analysis: Recognizing underlying patterns and examining them to predict future outcomes.
• Foreknowledge: Integrating known, "safe-to-assume" future events (like budgets or troop movements) into planning.
• Forecasting: Envisioning multiple likely futures to compare their likelihood and achieve a desired end state.

More importantly, we developed a Conceptual Model of "Time": A comprehensive visual framework (see figure above) that organizes these facets, along with cognitive biases and planning horizons. This model became the backbone of the entire training intervention.

The Intervention: A "Flight Simulator" for Strategic Thought

Using the Analysis, Design, Development, Implementation, and Evaluation (ADDIE) model, we designed, developed, and tested a four-module interactive multimedia instruction (IMI) tool geared toward mid-career officers. This "course" was designed to be a practical tool, not a history lecture.

It uses compelling, relevant scenarios to anchor the concepts:

• Module 1: Introduction
  • Introduces the core definition and the new conceptual framework.
• Module 2: The Past
  • Scenario: The 20-year U.S. involvement in Afghanistan.
  • Focus: Using techniques like historical reasoning and identifying causal chains to understand a complex past.
• Module 3: The Present
  • Scenario: A notional crisis involving China, Mexican cartels, and border security.
  • Focus: Applying a five-step thinking-in-time process to frame a current, ambiguous problem:
    1. Develop Historical Estimate (Understand)
    2. Visualize End State and Conduct Historical Reconnaissance
    3. Describe Historically Sound Actions/Approaches
    4. Conduct Historical and Heuristic Wargaming and Retrospective Test
    5. Decide, Direct, and Assess
• Module 4: The Future
  • Scenario: A critical institutional challenge: The Army's recruiting shortfall and its impact on the future force.
  • Focus: Using the seven facets of thinking in time to anticipate and shape the future.

Key Findings: The "Humbling Effect"

The four-module program was tested with 80 Army officers, from lieutenants to a brigadier general. The results were compelling.

Finding 1: The Program Was Highly Successful (by Self-Report)

Participants' reactions were overwhelmingly positive. The intervention gave them concrete tools and a new appreciation for the skill:

• 73% agreed they "gained more tools and skills for deliberate planning".
• 76% agreed the program "enhanced their understanding of the dimension of time" in decision-making.
• 91% found the new conceptual framework a "useful tool for comprehending and visualizing" the skill after completing Module 1.
• 75% agreed the scenarios were effective at illustrating the concepts.

Finding 2: The "Humbling Effect" on Senior Leaders

The most fascinating insight emerged from comparing junior and senior officers. Participants were asked to rate their understanding of "thinking in time" before and after the training.

• Junior Officers (Company Grade): Their confidence rocketed. The percentage of junior officers who felt confident in their ability jumped by 31 percentage points after the training. The program gave them a new cognitive toolset they didn't have before.
• Senior Officers (Field/General Grade): Their confidence decreased slightly (from 69% to 64%).

This is a powerful finding. For senior leaders who were likely already (over)confident in their strategic abilities, the training acted as a "humbling effect." It revealed the true complexity of the skill, exposed them to cognitive biases, and replaced unearned confidence with a more realistic understanding of the challenges. This suggests the training is effective at all levels, but for different reasons.

Why This Matters for Leaders

This research successfully translates "thinking in time" from a fuzzy concept into a defined, trainable skill. It provides the first-ever empirically-backed conceptual framework and a ready-to-use developmental program for building it.

The findings show that this skill can be taught, and that the training provides immense value. For junior leaders, it builds a foundation of confidence and provides a new mental model. For senior leaders, it refines their skills and tempers overconfidence, which is equally critical for high-stakes decisions.

We strongly recommend implementing this training program early in a leader's career and reinforcing it periodically in order to build a cohort of leaders who can effectively learn from the past to win in the future.

Full Citation

Stothart, C., Young, R. G., Burbelo, G. A., Cobb, M. G., Normand, S. L., DeLoia, M. A., Ejiogu, K. C., & Woody, B. (2024). Thinking-in-time: A scenario-based developmental method for Army officers (ARI-SS SR 2024-31). U.S. Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social Sciences.